Multi-asset

Emerging markets lead the way

The global risk asset rally continued in early 2017, with emerging market investments the star performers.

Our medium-term framework for risk assets continues to point to a mildly cautious stance
Emerging markets lead the way

Risks

  • Increase in political risks across most Western countries: Europe’s turn in the spotlight
  • Global debt burdens (and associated servicing costs) remain a concern in emerging markets
  • Difficulties in normalising monetary policy could only become apparent as policymakers unwind emergency measures
  • Shrinking valuation buffers in most risk assets (i.e. higher equity multiples, tighter credit spreads)

Opportunities

  • Bouts of investor nervousness and volatility may present recurrent opportunities to add risk at attractive levels
  • Potential US dollar strength as Fed hikes come back into focus
  • Potential for higher inflation not yet reflected in index-linked markets
  • Asset purchases by central banks (outside of the US) could keep asset prices supported

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