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Sunset over rocky landscape and lake
Outlook Category: Outlook

Q1 Outlook: False dawn?

In their latest investment outlook, our Asset Allocation team explain why they worry that hopes of a ‘soft landing’ for the world economy may prove ephemeral – and what this means for how they are positioning.

CIO-Outlook-2023

CIO 2023 outlook: In search of silver linings

Lewis Pugh LGIM redseaswim
CIO Outlook Category: CIO Outlook

CIO autumn update: To COP and beyond

As delegates gather at COP27, they confront the same long-term challenge posed by climate change as they did last year. But the context has changed dramatically: in light of the war in Ukraine, governments need to balance net-zero goals with a new imperative for energy security.

Beach at sunset
Outlook Category: Outlook

Q4 Outlook: It’s darkest before dawn

In their latest investment outlook, our Asset Allocation team discuss their positioning and investment views for the coming months, in light of rising recession risks, flaring geopolitical tensions and ebbing market liquidity.

Skyscrapers emerging through the clouds
Outlook Category: Outlook

Q3 outlook: Central bankers strike back

The more policymakers worry about inflation, the less investors need to. We’re willing to buy into further market weakness – and have done so in the past weeks. But we’re also likely to dial down our stance should the prospects of a recession grow.

Ropes tied together
Outlook Category: Outlook

Geopolitical rupture in Europe: long-term investment implications

Ukraine flag hanging outside a building
Outlook Category: Outlook

Q2 Asset allocation: Tackling inflation and recession risk

In their latest investment outlook, our Asset Allocation team explain why in light of the evolving macroeconomic environment, they now favour selling into strength

Excavator working at a salt mine

The energy transition dilemma

A common goal of limiting global warming to well-below 2°C – and ideally 1.5°C by the end of the century as set out in the Paris Agreement – does not mean there is a common or accepted path for how to get there.

Looking up at a boat mast and sail
Outlook Category: Outlook

Q1 outlook: New year, new narrative

Even though 2022 has begun with an abrupt change in the macro narrative, stoked by the Fed, we hold the line on our bullish outlook for risk assets.

Wave Crashing
Outlook Category: Outlook

Active Strategies Outlook UK

Q4 2021 - An introduction to Active Strategies

Wind turbines next to a coastline

Reaching net zero: LGIM’s approach

Fighting climate change requires global greenhouse gas emissions to reach net zero. As an asset manager, we are committed to playing our part in this critical mission.

Cars pushing through bottlenecks
Outlook Category: Outlook

Q4 outlook: Pushing through bottlenecks

Power station by water
Energy Category: Energy

Decarbonisation: seeking stratospheric performance

Global temperatures are currently on a trajectory to increase by nearly 4°C above pre-industrial levels, which would be truly catastrophic, unless action is taken.

LGIM Q3 Outlook

Q3 Outlook: Summertime for investors?

We continue to favour staying long equities, and are prepared to increase our exposure in a dip, as investors bask in the sunshine of a global economy in mid-cycle.

2022 outlook
CIO Outlook Category: CIO Outlook

2022 outlook: Gathering pace

Expect profound changes in 2022 and beyond that will create both risks and opportunities for investors.

Woman hiking

Q2 Outlook 2021: Staying the course

Q4 Outlook - Reasons to believe

Q1 Outlook 2021: Rays of light

We remain long risk assets, and are minded to increase this stance, as economic normalisation is on the horizon and policymakers remain supportive.

CIO Outlook Category: CIO Outlook

CIO Outlook: Time for healing

Despite the ongoing challenges, we see next year as a time for healing – for the economy, environment and society.

The concentration conundrum

The Concentration Conundrum

Q4 Outlook - Reasons to believe

Q4 Outlook: Reasons to believe

As we enter the final months of 2020, we outline why we have become more inclined to buy dips in the equity markets.

Countdown to 2021

Countdown to 2021

The 10 themes our Asset Allocation team will be mulling over before welcoming 2021.

CIO autumn update Category: CIO autumn update

CIO autumn update: Endurance test

Fixed income Category: Fixed income

Fixed Income Outlook Q3 2020

Q3 Outlook: Taking stock

Outlook Category: Outlook

Q3 Outlook 2020: Optimism versus reality

We believe there is a striking disconnect between market pricing and the real economy, especially with regard to expected company earnings.

leaf.jpg
All Category: All

Climate Impact Pledge: Tackling the climate emergency

The second annual results of our Climate Impact Pledge showcase the corporate leaders and laggards on climate action; we are encouraged by improvements across sectors but will continue to press companies to meet this era-defining challenge.

Year of change.jpg
All Category: All

CIO outlook: Year of change

CIO Outlook Category: CIO Outlook

CIO outlook: Recovery positions

In this outlook, teams from across LGIM offer answers to some of the biggest questions for investors raised by COVID-19.

leaf.jpg
Politics and Policy Category: Politics and Policy

Active ownership 2019: Global engagement to deliver positive change

All Category: All

Inequality: the issue set to dominate the investment agenda

Our survey responses have revealed that inequality is an underlying, long-term thread weaving through many apparently shorter-term issues.

MMT-sep-2019-hawk.jpg
Politics and Policy Category: Politics and Policy

Modern Monetary Theory: are deficit hawks an endangered species?

A once-fringe economic theory has been embraced by liberal politicians at the same time as traditional budget hawks have been in retreat. Its rise has potentially radical implications for inflation and investors.

path2.jpg
All Category: All

CIO outlook: Opportunities in adversity

In this outlook, we bring together teams from across LGIM to answer the key macro and market questions for our clients over different time horizons.

market-insights-q3-2019.jpg
Outlook Category: Outlook

The signals and the noise

Compass-factoring.jpg
Multi- Asset Category: Multi- Asset

Factoring in volatility: building a defensive factor portfolio

Nervy investors are eyeing top-heavy market-cap indices with suspicion. But how can they use factors to navigate the trade-off between diversification and concentration risk?

Earth with different coloured sand
Multi-Asset Category: Multi-Asset

Effective diversification for a changing world

Clogs.jpg
Politics and Policy Category: Politics and Policy

The prospects for and implications of a four-day working week

A future in which there is less work to be done will radically reshape the economy, with important consequences for investors – including some contrarian implications for the consumer and real-estate sectors.

Japanese_stamp.jpg
Fundamentals Category: Fundamentals

Retirement anxiety, rate depression, populism…and what to do about it

Chinese-laterns-GettyImages-926181758.jpg
Outlook Category: Outlook

Remaining bullish as the cycle goes on

We stay bullish on risk assets as we believe the medium term outlook for markets has actually improved

Energy Category: Energy

The nuclear option

Does a decarbonising world need atomic energy?

Squeezing-a-lime.jpg
CIO Outlook Category: CIO Outlook

Brace for a credit squeeze

Unfortunately for markets, our bearish outlook for 2018 came to pass. For 2019, the key question is how tightening financial conditions will impact heavily indebted borrowers – and whether this raises the risk of recession.

Stay invested
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Keeping calm and staying invested

unhealthy-living.jpg
Demographics Category: Demographics

Demographic strategy: the cost of unhealthy living

Raising the retirement age can help with the fiscal costs of living longer. But our unhealthy lives could force us to look at other options.

Politics and Policy Category: Politics and Policy

Freedom for the central banks

future-cities.jpg
Demographics Category: Demographics

Investing in future cities

What determines a city’s future success and how is this linked to property investment?

batteries.jpg
Energy Category: Energy

Are battery prices in for a shock?

Battery costs have declined rapidly in recent years, but the market is likely too optimistic about both the timeline for lower battery costs and what happens when we get there.

No-image.jpg
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Emerging markets lead the way

The global risk asset rally continued in early 2017, with emerging market investments the star performers.

Head with cogs inside
Retail Category: Retail

Is de-risking a good idea?

Man flying with parachute
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Late-cycle dynamics and low-risk portfolios

Coins in a jar
Decumulation Demystified Category: Decumulation Demystified

The natural income buffer

skyline.jpg
Outlook Category: Outlook

Q4 outlook: Gathering clouds

We turn cautious on global equities on a tactical and medium-term view, as US stocks flirt with record highs even though risks to the world economy are mounting.

M2399 OUTLOOK Mind the traps.jpg
Outlook Category: Outlook

Q1 Outlook: Mind the traps

We remain cautious overall as risks of the US election, trade with China, unpredictable geopolitical events and Brexit continue to smoulder.

responsible.jpg
Index Category: Index

Responsible investing: factor friend or foe?

Can environmental, social and governance concerns (ESG) fit within a factor-based portfolio? In this article, we tackle two issues: the inconsistency in methodologies for ESG scoring, and ways to integrate ESG considerations into factor portfolios.

Good-growth-poor-politics.jpg
Multi-Asset Category: Multi-Asset

Good growth, poor politics

usa-flag.jpg
Multi-Asset Category: Multi-Asset

America first… but for how long?

Whether you’re looking at equities, bond yields, currencies or economic strength, it’s the US that’s been leading the charge. Is this likely to continue?

us-midterms.jpg
All Category: All

US midterms: three scenarios for investors

The American midterm elections are approaching and the crystal ball gazing has begun. Here’s what investors should consider regardless of whether the US votes for a ‘distilled Donald’, the ‘Democratic double’ or a ‘divided democracy’.

market_insights_2019_outlook_investing.jpg
Outlook Category: Outlook

Investing in the twilight zone

The economic expansion of the last decade has been a consistent tailwind for financial assets. We see next year as the start of the twilight zone between expansion and an eventual downturn that will likely mark the end of the cycle.

Outlook Category: Outlook

Q2 Outlook: Safety first

Plastics on beach
Energy Category: Energy

What the battle against plastic means for oil demand

Cleaning up the world’s plastic waste will be a monumental effort – one which will have major implications for petrochemical companies and the long-term demand for oil.

CIO Outlook Category: CIO Outlook

Expect the bumpy journey to continue

Investors have been buffeted by a large number of negative headlines in 2018. We remain of the view that tightening global liquidity conditions are likely to exacerbate market volatility.

july-2018-migration.jpg
Politics and Policy Category: Politics and Policy

EU migration, populism and investment risks

Investors need to factor in how immigration concerns in the European Union could fuel the rise of populist parties, potentially increasing the political risk premium.

The World Cup
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Multi-Asset World Cup 2018: The finals

The World Cup
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Multi-Asset World Cup 2018: The knock out round

Battling Biases
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Battling Behavioural Biases

The World Cup
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Multi-Asset World Cup 2018: The group stage

climate-pledge.jpg
All Category: All

LGIM’s Climate Impact Pledge: The results so far

"We are publicising the global corporate leaders and laggards on climate change."

Shanghai-1997.jpg
Demographics Category: Demographics

China’s rising middle class: sector implications

Today’s China no longer matches the view of the country that most people have. Could this gap between perception and reality offer a wealth of investment opportunities?

Artificial Intelligence
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

10 investment biases (you didn’t know you had)

Index Category: Index

Why voting matters for index investors

The ‘one share, one vote’ standard has been in place since 1940 but the number of companies with unequal voting rights is on the rise.

monetary-policy.jpg
Fixed income Category: Fixed income

The monetary policy squeeze

What should investors make of rising yields, higher volatility and wider credit spreads?

stone-age.jpg
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

What the Stone Age can teach investors

A brief discussion of some of the behavioural biases that can explain factor premia.

boom-bust.jpg
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Boom then bust?

Can cyclical tailwinds paper over the structural cracks? And what’s the outlook for global trade, China and equity investors?

chess_april_2018.jpg
Fixed income Category: Fixed income

EMD: Stronger fundamentals are first line of defence in trade war

While trade tensions have escalated in recent months, we believe the case for emerging markets remains compelling - if investors know where to look.

overcrowding.jpg
Index Category: Index

Overcrowding and capacity in factor-based investing

AI.jpg
Active equities Category: Active equities

Artificial intelligence gets real

Is artificial intelligence overhyped, or are we at the vanguard of a new wave of corporate productivity improvements ushered in by next-generation technology?

MiFID_II_image.jpg
All Category: All

Why we shouldn't be too miffed with MiFID II

While the financial reforms pose risks to trading, we can take heart from the benefits of greater transparency, says Ed Wicks, Head of Trading at LGIM.

Decumulation Demystified
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Factors that influence the optimal decumulation strategy

All hail shale
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

All hail shale?

union-jack.jpg
Active equities Category: Active equities

UK equities: On the brink of a new era

Get ready for a shift in UK market leadership, says Stephen Message, manager of the L&G UK Equity Income Fund.

Credit-outlook-2018.jpg
Fixed income Category: Fixed income

Credit Outlook 2018

Are market expectations too good to be true?

EM-outlook.jpg
Fixed Income Category: Fixed Income

EM Outlook 2018

Looking into 2018, US policies will remain one of the biggest focal points for EM assets, even if it has felt like ‘waiting for Godot’.

Turnaround-story.jpg
Active Equities Category: Active Equities

Active Voice: Turnaround stories

Companies that have seen their share price depreciate sharply in the face of self-inflicted wounds, structural challenges, or cyclical headwinds, represent potential ‘turnaround stories’. In this article we look at the attraction of investing in these businesses, and evaluate the risks or opportunities they present.

Tightrope.jpg
Multi Asset Category: Multi Asset

Walking a tightrope in 2018

We expect another strong year for growth with the global economy firing on almost all cylinders. But the market has priced in this optimism, implying greater vulnerability for disappointment. We expect the low interest rate environment to continue into 2018. While interest rates can drift up, we do not think this is the beginning of the end for the bond markets.

CIO-outlook-dec17.jpg
CIO Outlook Category: CIO Outlook

CIO Investment Outlook

unconventional-policy.jpg
Politics and Policy Category: Politics and Policy

Unconventional policy in the next downturn

A lack of policy space means that central banks may have to turn to more unconventional responses when the next recession occurs.

renewable-energy-windmills.jpg
Energy Category: Energy

The renewable revolution

A renewable revolution is taking place in the way we produce and consume energy and it presents an enormous opportunity for investors.

tv650.jpg
Technology Category: Technology

The future of TV: It's blurred

Predictions about the demise of the TV industry have persisted for over a decade, even as UK TV advertising and subscription revenues have continued to grow. However, we believe the industry has reached a tipping point, driven by rapid developments in technology and changing demographics.

Demographics Category: Demographics

Demographic dividends, corporate challenges

Planes.jpg
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Steady and synchronised

In this quarterly outlook we outline our asset allocation views and address three key questions on equities, US monetarypolicy and emerging markets.

an-age-old-problem.jpg
Demographics Category: Demographics

Demographics and inflation – an age-old problem

Slower population growth has probably depressed OECD inflation by around ½% over the past decade. Going forward, the outlook could change.

Cutting_up_flag.jpg
Technology Category: Technology

Knowing me, knowing EU: an update on Brexit

A weak pound and rising inflation, set against a tight labour market and loose credit conditions, should keep the UK out of recession.

No-image.jpg
Demographics Category: Demographics

End of the baby boom

The retirement of baby boomers is having a negative impact on economic growth. This is bad news for the return on risky assets and applies downward pressure on interest rates.

No-image.jpg
Energy Category: Energy

What happened to peak oil?

Peak oil demand is a contentious topic. It is crucial for climate change, yet there are possible negative downsides such as volatile oil equity prices and corporate bond defaults.

No-image.jpg
Technology Category: Technology

Investing in change

World_stocks.jpg
All Category: All

Investing in a changing world

The world is changing and how it looks in five years’ time will be very different to today. A long-term perspective is the key to success.

No-image.jpg
Technology Category: Technology

The disruption dilemma

Technology change presents risks as well as opportunities. Identifying and valuing these risks is crucial to preserving investor value in both the short and the long term.

Demographic-drivers.jpg
Demographics Category: Demographics

Demographic drivers

Some countries are in pole position, while others are in danger of crashing out. The global labour force (the number of 15-70 year olds willing to work) is slowing down.

Grid-lock.jpg
Technology Category: Technology

Global passenger car penetration: Grid lock!

The-driving-machine-transformed.jpg
Technology Category: Technology

The driving machine transformed

After more than a century of incremental change, technological trends and consumer demands around road vehicles are converging.

Ageing-and-wrinkles1.jpg
Demographics Category: Demographics

Ageing and wrinkles in public finances

Pay-as-you-go pension and healthcare schemes are under increasing pressure from ageing populations.

Asia-demographics-1.jpg
Demographics Category: Demographics

Asia demographics: from ageing champions to young challengers

Driven by positive demographic trends, Asia has been a critical engine of the global economy, contributing around 30% of world GDP growth since 1980.

Feather.jpg
Index Category: Index

Can including fallen angels enhance returns?

What is a fallen angel? In theological terms, a fallen angel is one who has rebelled and been exiled from heaven.

UK-yields-to-stay-low.jpg
Fixed Income Category: Fixed Income

UK yields to stay low?

Investors currently buying UK government bonds are doing so in the knowledge that they are accepting a yield which is lower than the rate of inflation, i.e. the real yield.

Polling_sign.jpg
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Hung parliament - Minority Report

Tactics.jpg
Fixed Income Category: Fixed Income

In Defence of Discipline

Global credit markets have shown remarkable resilience over the past year.

French_pres.jpg
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Le Pen is mightier than the sword, but not Emmanuel Macron

In a largely anticipated result, Emmanuel Macron has won the French presidential election.

Rally_racing.jpg
Fixed Income Category: Fixed Income

Taper Tantrum 2: The Fed and the Furious

Monetary support is being tapered despite significant risks. Pressure is building steadily and we think that recent resilience is going to be tested.

China_USA.jpg
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Should investors be worried about US-China relations?

The-Vanishing-Cycle.jpg
Fixed Income Category: Fixed Income

The vanishing cycle

Just as the popularity of two-wheeled pedal power has been surging across London, a different type of cycle, the economic kind, has vanished from sight.

No-image.jpg
Multi-asset Category: Multi-asset

Markets under the macroscope

In this quarterly outlook we outline our asset allocation views and address four key questions on wages, sterling, trade and rates.

Scales.jpg
Fixed Income Category: Fixed Income

Emerging market debt ratios - opportunities and risks

It’s tempting to think otherwise, but not all emerging market debt is created equal. In this piece we examine the public, private and external debt profiles of individual emerging markets.

Peak-coal.jpg
Energy Category: Energy

Peak coal: in terminal decline?

Our forecast of a long-term structural shift away from coal could have dramatic implications for investors.

Retail Category: Retail

Is it time to retire the 4% rule?

Inside-the-walls-of-smart-logistics.jpg
Technology Category: Technology

Inside the walls of smart logistics

Multi-Pet Discount Terms and Conditions

This is not a consumer advertisement. It’s intended for professional financial advisers and should not be relied upon by private investors or any other persons.

The value of investments and any income from them may fall as well as rise, and investors may get back less than they invest. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Changes in exchange rates or medium to long-term interest rates may cause the value of an investment to fall.

Legal & General (Unit Trust Managers) Limited. Registered in England and Wales No. 1009418. Registered office: One Coleman Street, London EC2R 5AA. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

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