Market Insights

As we look ahead to the next three months, and consider how to invest on behalf of our clients, we are confronted by seemingly conficting signals from depressed bond yields and exuberant equities.

Nervy investors are eyeing top-heavy market-cap indices with suspicion. But how can they use factors to navigate the trade-off between diversification and concentration risk?

We stay bullish on risk assets as we believe the medium term outlook for markets has actually improved

The American midterm elections are approaching and the crystal ball gazing has begun. Here’s what investors should consider regardless of whether the US votes for a ‘distilled Donald’, the ‘Democratic double’ or a ‘divided democracy’.

The economic expansion of the last decade has been a consistent tailwind for financial assets. We see next year as the start of the twilight zone between expansion and an eventual downturn that will likely mark the end of the cycle.

In our last quarterly outlook, we flagged our cautious posture on risk assets, taken due to a number of smouldering risks on the horizon. One risk we did not highlight, however, was that a pandemic would break out, causing untold human suffering and economic damage.

What should investors make of rising yields, higher volatility and wider credit spreads?

A brief discussion of some of the behavioural biases that can explain factor premia.

Can cyclical tailwinds paper over the structural cracks? And what’s the outlook for global trade, China and equity investors?

We expect another strong year for growth with the global economy firing on almost all cylinders. But the market has priced in this optimism, implying greater vulnerability for disappointment. We expect the low interest rate environment to continue into 2018. While interest rates can drift up, we do not think this is the beginning of the end for the bond markets.

The consequences of monetary tightening will define the 2018 investment landscape.

In this quarterly outlook we outline our asset allocation views and address three key questions on equities, US monetarypolicy and emerging markets.

Just as the popularity of two-wheeled pedal power has been surging across London, a different type of cycle, the economic kind, has vanished from sight.

In this quarterly outlook we outline our asset allocation views and address four key questions on wages, sterling, trade and rates.

It’s tempting to think otherwise, but not all emerging market debt is created equal. In this piece we examine the public, private and external debt profiles of individual emerging markets.