2024 private credit outlook: A question of balance

Caution is needed if a recession does arrive.

While debt yields are high in a historic context, we believe investors should keep a strategic eye on structural trends balanced with a tactical eye on credit quality and risk-adjusted returns.
Rock stacks in a desert landscape

Private credit performed well in 2023, with low default rates and plenty of market activity.

But, with a recession potentially on the way, will this continue into 2024?

In her annual outlook, Private Credit Research Manager Lushan Sun argues that private credit could offer many opportunities in 2024, but makes the case for cautious positioning, conservative leverage, and a focus on credit quality and risk-adjusted returns.

She also covers:

  • How and why the investment grade and crossover sections of private credit could benefit from the macro context
  • The ongoing trend toward alternative debt among corporate borrowers, and the benefits for investors

The potential opportunities offered by new real estate debt origination, even if it comes under sustained pressure in 2024.

Key risks: the value of an investment and any income taken from it is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up, you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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